I agree with you, devsadv, no need for disappointment over maintaining earnings guidance. TFS has a very good record of exceeding guidance each year, although often not until the August results. Even in the unlikely event that they do not beat guidance, cash EBITDA of around $62M is around 2.6 times higher what it was only four years ago in FY12. From there, it is likely to take off by around 40% in FY17 to around $88M, according to two of the recent analyst reports.
NPAT may not have the same kind of increase as it has in recent years as the $A has stayed around the same relative to the $US over the last year. There will still be the usual uptick due to forest growth. But then, actual NPAT has increased by over four times in just three years from $25.9M in FY12 to $113M in FY15, so a breather for one year should not be a bother for investors. NPAT should also take off again in FY17.
IMO this is definitely one for strong gains over the medium term, while the share price is played with in the short term. Although I normally just hold my good stocks, taking advantage of the wild price swings is something I have started to do as well.
TFC Price at posting:
$1.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
