@V*,
I wouldn't describe what's occurred in the last 2 weeks as ''normal'', but then again, the declines we've seen over the last 4 years were also not ''normal''. Gold and Gold stocks were ridiculously oversold, as the market wakes up and realizes the errors of its' ways, we'll see some big moves up, which is what we're experiencing now.
A mania is what occurred in the latter part of the last century, when there were tech companies trading at PE's of 500. That's a Mania.
Even at today's valuation, BDR's PE ratio on forward earnings is probably less than 6 (I haven't checked this). When it gets to a PE of 300 and everyone is screaming ''BUY BUY BUY!!!!'', then you'll recognize this correctly as a mania and you should then sell.
This is absolutely 100% not a mania, this is just a bull market.
''I have years of painful experience of buying into rises not even half as strong as this only to be left holding while everyone else sold it down.''
Don't trade it and you won't be buying into rises. BDR has got miles to go (as well as Gold), just go long and don't sell, it's real simple.
There are very few successful traders out there, but there are many investors that are consistently successful just adopting buy and hold strategies.
From a previous post - ''I cannot pick this market''.
Don't try to pick anything, it's completely pointless. You'll never get it right, and, if you do get it right then sooner or later you'll get it wrong and erase all your previous gains.
You need to make two fundamental decisions :
1) Is gold likely to increase in price over the next few years?
2) Will this have a positive effect on BDR?
If you've answered ''yes'' to both questions, then the only thing left to do is buy and hold. It's that simple, everything else is just noise.
In saying all of this however, I expect we'll see a pull back in the very near future. I'll still be holding.
Cheers
Ivan
