Capman
I don't think you understood the point I was making. I was pointing out that the fair value at which Hardman should trade over the next couple of months should be approximately 40% of the difference between the Tullow share price on the day (in $A) and the $2.02 buyout price.
So if Tullow trades at 400 pence, at the current exchange rate HDR should be worth about $2.10-2.11.
If Tullow drops back to 375, HDR should trade below $2.05. Actual trading prices will be lower as there will be some risk premium to account for, but you get the general idea.
This also illustrates that current trading may be simply arbitrage action and have nothing to do with other bidders entering the market
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