Your use of 8% in NPV calc is similar to that of Hartley's, whose reasoning is that producing miners should have lower risk than soon-to-produce miners. Don't quite understand why the DCF discount rate is applied to derisk producing miners. Maybe I'm mistaken.
Looks like there's little difference in the DCF derived sp: approx. 90c for bear case and $1 for bull case. But as you stated, there are a number of assumptions made in the calc, some of which are conservative.
The unknown blue sky upsides will include significant resource to reserve conversion, excellent drill results, Tropicana East drilling, longer-term POG, a new gold-backed currency and a T/O offer of at least $2 (wouldn't that be nice).
Cheers.
BDR Price at posting:
47.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
