Hi guys.
I said I would stay away until a further ann but I have just been looking through NOR's old ANN back in 2015.
The question in my mind is if we assume WP consumer revenue is not going to be as central to NOR as we all hoped then what else can help.
The OTT's are an as yet unconfirmed dark horse. I think they are vital to NOR's survival but trying to estimate what or they could take shape leaves you with more questions than answers. VNPT is still progressing but no further info about time frames has come out.
Let's revisit CORONA for a moment.
If we assume NOR has has a cash burn of 1 million dollars a month then how many corona contracts does NOR need to stay afloat ?
This graph is sourced from their OCT 2015 investor presentation.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20151012/pdf/431zwr8fbb17nw.pdf
It's a case study of an ASX 200 company with a current staff that has 200 roaming mobiles.
They are currently spending 860 K on voice roaming calls.
We can rule out 100% wifi right now.
lets say the 30/70 is accurate.
That leaves NOR getting the now getting paid the bill of $646,000 per year or 53,833 per month.
Does anybody in the industry have an idea on what costs it would be for NOR from the teleco's pipes for providing this service ? For the sake of an argument ( not an estimate ) lets say the have 30% costs and can keep 70% out of this 53,833 . Please if you have some industry knowledge or better estimates please contribute.
That would leave them with $37,683 per large company per month. they still have to pay employee and marketing costs etc but that is included in the cash burn of 1 million.
So again very ugly figures I admit but if they close NOR can stay in the game if they can get client numbers to offset a 1 million a month cash burn. 1 million/ 37 K = 26.53
My point is that if my figures are remotely close and NOR can secure 26 large companies with phone revenues exceeding 800 K then they can meet their financial obligations just on Corona.
So 5 large asx 200 companies with account spends over 600K across 5 industries would be well in the ballpark.
Is this achievable with corona GTS over the next 2 quarters before they run out of bananas or this a pipe dream ? If it's not what else can plug the revenue gap if we maintain another CR is not possible ( And I think its not ).
I had a look again at the board of the directors. If you look at Amit Pau for example he was the lead international account manager for vodaphone. Steve tot also comes very well connected. How many large company people of influence and phone account managers of large companies would all the NOR exes know between them ?
I think if they have done their homework on industry needs they are still worth a punt. If corona does meet requirements in service and price by the time they know this they will have no chance to make corrections before they run out of cash.
Feeling lucky ? punk.
(20min delay)