1. How much would the TO offer have to be? Somewhere well in excess of A$2bn, surely..
2. Does anyone in the global dairy industry have lots of spare cash, bearing in mind that the present world dairy downturn is expected to last another year or two.
3. What advantage would it be for a TO offeror to spend such money on a company with a very high PE and not showing much profit, and with questions still being asked about the benefits of A2?
4. Because of the time-lag in converting herds to A2, even using the smartest methods, it would take years for the TO investment to start paying off.
As a longterm shareholder I am not keen to see a TO bid in the near future. I believe the company's real future is some years further away, when it will be worth a lot more than $3-5 a share. And I think potential bidders are not ready yet. They will want to see more proof that the A2 hypothesis will stand up both scientifically and commercially and that global farmers are ready to make the switch. Dairy companies generally don't own cows, so the decision about A2 supply has to be made by farmers themselves, who don't yet understand A1/A2 (other than in Australia and NZ) and have to foot the bill for herd conversion. And there's only one company in the world familiar with the science, the markets and the practical issues involved in running an A2 operation. To anyone else it would be unknown territory.
I think the company is doing very nicely as it is and am hopeful it will continue growing in a measured manner. It's capable of making decent profits and expanding quite a bit without actually threatening mainstream dairy, and by the time it starts to undermine the mainstream industry it will be a lot bigger than it is now.
A2M Price at posting:
$1.90 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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