Would you believe that I am one of the moderate ones? I have heard figures from geos that you won't believe and I think OOO knows who I am talking about. WN's 2 or 3 billion is kinder garder stuff. There are a lot of people who don't post here anymore, and I mean knowledgeable people, because there are too much nonsense going on and that's to the loss of all of us. You can blame those who carry on! Some posters are probably planted here.
Regardless of what a lot of posters rave on about in here, I don't think you can dispute the following
1. Oil companies including WPL, would not plan on the basis of the present. Their Strategic Plan is probably 5 years at least and their Long Term plan is probably over 10 year. The Chinese probably work on 2 or 3 x that. Why would POO of $40 even be a concern of theirs except for "opportunities in this bad period hmph yes, Senegal JV looks good". To WPL, FAR's TO price could be a lot different to the 8c now.
With the upgrade etc, I would say WPL would be prepared to pay a lot more. I said it many times before, did WPL really use the 2.20 for their decision? I am thinking NO. I think it is more likely to be 3.74. It sounded a lot better to say we got it for 2.20 and put the pressure on FAR and CNE.
2. FAR is just unbelievable lucky for the low POO, to be able to drill those wells at the price. It would have to raise a lot more money otherwise. So we shouldn't be complaining about the POO. Incredible too to have 6 out of 6 successful wells. No wonder WPL wanted in!
3. FAR is also very opportunistic too, to be able to now use WPL's 2.20 valuation to PE (430 mil). Had WPL offered more, FAR again would have more difficulties in raising the money.
4. Because of results from last wells, DJ is now a prize (for WPL?). Hence what I said about WPL willing to pay more.
5. Upgrade and FAR's DoC are just round the corner.
This is opportunity of a life time and FAR has a chance to profit from this and I only hope it can raise the finance or have knight in the wing. They would then have earned their options and I will never complain about those options ever again.
KKW
FAR Price at posting:
7.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)