Result beat?, page-6

The boss a bit despondent about the death rate, rueing that "an especially mild autumn doesn't help".
A bit mean.
=======
The funeral and crematoria operator’s fortunes have been crimped by an unexpected abatement in the mortality rate, to well below forecast longer-term trends.
In a damning indictment of hardy pensioners, CEO Martin Earp rues that an “especially mild autumn doesn’t help” and the old battlers may even survive the harsh winter in true Digger spirit.
By far the biggest operator here, and with a market-leading presence in NZ and Singapore, InvoCare’s fortunes are linked to the death rate, which locally fell 3 per cent in the (first) June half
This runs counter to the Australian Bureau of Statistics forecasts, which predicts an annual 3 per cent increase up to 2034, when the last of the baby boomers expire.
One analyst complained the mortality rate has trended down over the last two halves, compared with the 6-7 per cent growth rate “over the last couple of years”.
Earp remains confident of the ABS data, even if no-one else does after the epic census fail.
“We should see an increase in sales in line with what we have experienced previously.’’
Of course the death rate and case volumes (the number of funerals handled) are altogether different measures, with the latter even more pertinent to InvoCare’s fortunes.
Across the business, average volumes rose an average 2.7 per cent in the half, helped by price rises averaging 3.3 per cent.
Overall InvoCare posted a 12 per cent rise in operating earnings to $23.7 million, with revenue eking up 2.6 per cent to $213m on a comparable basis.
But the company is pedalling hard, with smaller rivals chipping away at market share and modern mourners demanding lower-margin celebration style affairs rather than a sonorous vicar.
(They’re also spurning print death notices, another kick in the guts for those newspapers with one foot in the grave already).
Management has reacted by diverting resources to its better-performing brands (including Simplicity Funeral) and introducing a portal “to educate people on key issues online before they call us.’’
InvoCare accounts for 33 per cent of the market here, a country mile ahead of its rivals.
But this share fell about half a per cent, consistent with other times when volumes are tight. “Some of the smaller operators are chasing volumes by discounting,’’ he says.
InvoCare shares were sold off 2 per cent today on the so-so outlook. Put in perspective, the shares have jumped a lively 33 per cent over the last six month and the subdued demand doesn’t look like a fatal blow for the ASX’s ultimate defensive stock.