raceforms opinion of the last 100mtrs nov 7

Santorum, Republicans Find Philadelphia Suburbs `Ground Zero'

By Laura Litvan

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Philadelphia's prosperous suburbs are the site of a political showdown that may determine which party will emerge victorious from this year's midterm elections.

The four counties outside the city -- Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester -- have the highest concentration of close congressional races in the nation. Three local Republican congressmen are locked in races rated ``toss-ups'' by the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington -- and that was before news that one of them, Representative Curt Weldon, is under investigation for allegedly steering lobbying contracts to his daughter.

How residents of the counties vote Nov. 7 may also determine the fate of Senator Rick Santorum, the No. 3 Republican leader. ``If you're going to pick a ground zero in the 2006 elections, the Philadelphia suburbs are it,'' said Democratic strategist Paul Begala, who was an aide to former President Bill Clinton. ``If you see Democrats taking two of those three House seats, you're looking at a Democratic House.''

With Democrats needing a net gain of 15 seats to take control of the 435-member House and six seats to take over the 100-member Senate, political parties and interest groups are flooding the region with cash.

In the first 15 days of October, the two national parties and interest groups such as the National Rifle Association and the League of Conservation Voters spent $6.4 million on the races for the three suburban Philadelphia seats, according to Federal Election Commission disclosures. That's almost one-sixth of the $38 million the parties and interest groups spent on House races nationwide.

Dipping Below 50 Percent

As recently as 1995, Republicans accounted for 59 percent of registered voters in the four counties. Many were white-collar workers who left the city for bucolic Bucks County or Main Line enclaves of multi-million-dollar homes. A boom over the last decade has brought in more independent and Democratic-leaning voters; by last year, Republican registration dipped below 50 percent for the first time since records began to be kept in the 1930s.

Many of the newer arrivals are ``leaning Republican on economic issues, but liberal on social issues,'' said Michael Hagen, director of the Institute for Public Affairs at Temple University in Philadelphia.

Alabama in the Middle

The suburbs' importance as a swing region is magnified because the rest of the state is so clearly divided along party lines: The big cities are Democratic, while the central part of the state votes Republican. Democratic strategist James Carville once described the state politically as ``Philadelphia on one end, Pittsburgh on the other, with Alabama in the middle.''

Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed former Senator Bob Dole's presidential run in 1996, said, ``Republicans historically have to survive in the Philadelphia suburbs to win statewide.''

In the last decade, Republicans who carried them --including Senator Arlen Specter, former Governor Tom Ridge and, six years ago, Santorum -- all won. By contrast, President George W. Bush lost the suburbs, and the state, in both his races.

Polls and interviews with voters in the Philadelphia suburbs suggest that, for many, Bush and his position on the Iraq war are the key issues.

``My party is in power and I think it's doing some irresponsible things,'' said George Vosburgh, 66, an educational consultant in Chester County who has decided he won't vote for any Republican candidate for national office on Nov. 7.

The Bush Factor

Eileen Arrow, a Bucks County office manager, said that while she plans to vote for Santorum and Fitzpatrick, she doubts they will be re-elected because of their identification with Bush.

``They're in trouble, and I think it's all about the war,'' said Arrow, 49, a registered Republican. ``People hate George Bush, so they hate anyone in his party.'' Republican strategists are concerned that many of their supporters who feel similarly simply won't show up to vote.

That would be bad news for Santorum, 48, who is serving his second term and is running behind his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Bob Casey, 46, in polls. ``If there are any undecided voters, this is where they're going to be,'' said Jennifer Duffy, Senate editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.

Suburban Women

Hagen said Santorum faces one of his greatest challenges among suburban women put off by his strong anti-abortion stance. While Casey opposes abortion too, Santorum has been one of the Senate's most outspoken members on the issue. In addition, a book he published last year in which he questioned whether women should work didn't sit well with some.

``He is very much one note, always stressing his conservatism,'' said Liz Hansler, 48, a West Chester homemaker. ``Anyone who disagrees with him is wrong.'' Other voters, though, said they appreciate the consistency of Santorum's positions. ``He says what he thinks and he doesn't waver from it,'' said Christine Lobley, 25, a registered Republican from Gladwyne who is the executive director of a charity.

The three suburban House races are just as hard-fought as the Senate battle.

One battle, in the city's western suburbs, pits incumbent Weldon, 59, against Democrat Joe Sestak, 54, a retired Navy vice admiral. Weldon, who has served 10 terms, describes the race as the toughest of his career. ``Bush's popularity in the district is very low, and our polls show that,'' Weldon said in an interview last week. ``I'm running uphill.''

FBI Raid

The hill may have become considerably steeper yesterday when the Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed that its agents raided six locations, including the homes of Weldon's daughter and an associate. While the bureau didn't disclose the reason for the raids, a person familiar with the matter said they were part of a probe into whether the lawmaker improperly used his influence to steer business to Karen Weldon's consulting firm.

In the district next door to Weldon's, meanwhile, two-term Republican Representative Jim Gerlach, 51, is in a rematch against Democrat Lois Murphy, 44. She is the former president of the state chapter of the abortion-rights group NARAL; Gerlach defeated her in 2004 with 51 percent of the vote.

While Gerlach has shown independence from his party, including voting against a constitutional amendment to ban same- sex marriage, Murphy is reminding voters that he supported Bush policies such as a proposal to boost domestic oil production that Democrats say is too favorable to energy companies.

In the suburbs on the other side of the city, in Bucks County, Democratic attorney and Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy, 32, is campaigning to unseat freshman Representative Mike Fitzpatrick. The lawmaker, 43, also stresses an independent record, including his vote against Bush's energy policies.

Between the House races and the Santorum-Casey battle, suburban residents are surrounded by politics, said Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster. ``The campaigning is fierce, ferocious and omnipresent,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Laura Litvan in Philadelphia [email protected]

Last Updated: October 17, 2006 00:05 EDT