fmg over valued, page-57

Iron ore history
In 2005 to 2006 $28-$33 ton when the world economy was over heating .
In 2002 -2003 $12-$16 when growth slow
The median price 2004-2007 was around $25 ton.

How can you have a sustain prices above the median prices in a moderate demand in a recession.
Iron ore is now in high supply which effects price, when demand is moderate.

Prices well below $40 ton is reasonable because prices peaked at $33 when the world economy was overheating in 2006. It was only the devaluation of the USD that caused hyper inflation of iron ore. Nothing fundamental.

2007 -2015 there was hyper inflation due to devaluation of the USD then a crash in which iron ore found its new low after 8yrs at about $40 USD. This was a new benchmark. There has been a dead cat bounce in the market to $57 ton.

There is no such thing as an expert, only opinions based on data with reasoning.

Below are some googled opinions from so called experts.
Goldman sachs forecasts iron ore going back to $35 ton.

BHP and Rio expect prices to fall.

Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy analyst at Commonwealth Bank. He is cautions that the current trend of a lift in iron ore inventories and a rise in prices "is unusual":

National Australia Bank said on Wednesday it expects iron ore prices to slip back to $US40 a tonne from 2017 onwards.

A very basic explanation. If you want to buy an apple and you are the only buyer what do you think will happen to the price. Better still what happens if you no longer like apples.