Thanks for this
@FullMoonFever
Unfortunately, they don't also note the additional $500M in debt (if they did, I don't see it...am a bit rushed - want to go out for a beer Sat night
) over and above the AREO. Recall only $400M of the approx $900M required is offered to existing holders - the rest is a 5 Year Note of some description.,
Speaking of which, the Insto Entitlement Offer and related Bookbuild closed on Friday, and we'll get an idea of the Offer takeup and Premium price (if any) over and above the $2.05 offer price.
The stock resumes trading from the TH Monday Aug 29, and all will be revealed. The Retail Offer (i.e. us) opens on or about Thurs. 1 September.
My own guess is there might be some reluctance with the Insto Offer (due to the additional debt), and combined with the general fall in AUS /AUD major gold miners (NCM, EVN, NST etc.) in the last 2 months or so post-Brexit (
perfectly tracking the decline in XAUAUD = POG in Aussie $ - about $100 /ozs), will lead to a fall in the Open...Perhaps to as low as a range of 2.10 - 2.15....which wouldn't make me happy. I've held this almost 2 years now (and traded some), it's still my biggest holding.
Finally, Fed Chair Yellen's speech late last night didn't do any good for gold, but personally, I go against the crowd, and am very skeptical about the much vaunted inverse relationship between rates and POG. I don't see it.
I will add in passing - and you heard it here first - that markets are ALL behaving rationally in response to that widely watched Speech.
ALL major Currency pairs fell (i.e. USD rose) = anticipation of rate hike;
US 10 Year T-Notes rose over 3.6% = anticipation of rate hike;|
US Equities fell (a bit) = anticipation of rate hike;
Gold itself fell (after initially soaring, always wild swings at such moments) = anticipation of rate hike, but see below.
So, all markets, in all asset classes, are in sync.
Personally, I don't see a rate hike this year (but what I think is irrelevant, the market is speaking loud and clear) as I've said many times on Gold Forum, and so far, I've been right, and recall there's a quadrennial Presidential Election (and also many others, Congress, States etc.) Nov 8, despite Fed Dep. Chair Fischer saying (some highlights):
"
*FISCHER: FED IS RESOLUTELY NOT A POLITICAL BODY
*FISCHER: WE AREN'T ELECTION FORECASTERS; LOOK AT ECO. SIGNALS"
Yeah, sure.
Even if we do see a hike in Sept (impossible), then what? As I mentioned above I think the inverse correlation is overrated.
We all know what happened after the Dec 2015 Fed Funds rate hike.
The 1980's, 1990's were a period of continually falling rates after Reagan / Volcker effectively and finally purged endemic inflation from the US (and so, the biggest bull market in US history, ending in the 2000-2003 crash), and concurrently a 20 year bear in gold (a period of falling int. rates). It's true , it fell from the silver / gold mania / Hunt Bros. manipulated bubble that crashed spectacularly in 1980, so was due for a fall, but the evidence is ....unclear.
Perhaps someone else might wish to chart gold price (XAUUSD) since 2000 vs Interest rates for the period since 2000???
I realize a bit Off Topic, but still relevant, I think.
GLTAH when EVN resumes (presumably Monday).
(20min delay)