australias rinker seen rejecting cemex 12 bln offe, page-7

You only want to trade Rinker if you believe you are better in predicting the outcome of the bid than the market.

At this stage, based on the ADR $18+ price, the market believes $17 to be an ambit claim and expects a higher bid. But that is not much help because $18 is a composite of the odds of a higher bid and the odds of the bid failing. However, if the bid succeeds, the offer will be substantially better than $18.

And if the bid fails ......