PE Timetable, page-18

Great post by 34. Szaba's post is rubbish dressed as rational logic. Let's connect some dots here.

A year ago FAR said it would increase its stake if the opportunity arose.

WPL's announcement blind-sided FAR. We know that from the TH debacle. Clearly COP had not informed FAR - or, it now seems, Petrosen/Government - of its agreement to sell to WPL.

There is evidence, though, that Cairn was informed. ("There was a reason the transaction was structured as it was.")

FAR was dealt out but ostensibly did nothing about it until more than 30 days later, despite its stated desire to purchase a greater share. The only logical explanation for FAR's silence is that it had the ability to PE but wanted Cairn out of the picture. Cairn provided FAR with confirmation it knew the terms of the sale agreement but did nothing within its 30-day window. A week later, FAR blew the whistle. That PE window had not yet opened for FAR/Petrosen.

Clearly FAR has funding lined up. Further evidence emerged just today when FAR said it had access to funding to meet at least 12 months commitments. Note it did not say it had sufficient cash; we know that is not right.

P321 has talked of PE-squared. I don't know Phillip but his posts clearly indicate he moves in the capital markets and would have a good idea of what's going on. P predicted we are now set for at least a month's hiatus during which the shorter/capper would wreak further SP damage. So far so good on that prediction.

Finally, if it didn't matter to COP from where it's cash came, why wouldn't it simply roll over and deal FAR/Petrosen back in the game? It matters all right: They have done a dodgy deal with WPL and, as 34 notes, are desperate not to be outed.

I can only see this being resolved in one of three ways: In court/tribunal, out of court only because COP's own lawyers say it can't win, or because Macky Sall tells COP he will not sanction its deal. I think the second is most likely because I reckon Farjoy will have ensured FAR has the best possible legal representation.

FAR has said it looks forward to updating the market "on the PE timetable". We look forward to it, too, Nic.

Oh, and Szaba, I hold FAR and would not presume to post about a stock I did not own.

OOO