In the first instance, today's JOLT figures had apparently negated all of yesterday's negative data - BUT, S&P500 tipping back into the red.
While there will still be all sorts of commentary about next FOMC meeting being 'live', and the prospects of a hike being sooner than the market thinks, my belief is that there is absolutely no chance of a rate hike in September. This won't, however, stop the endless, empty bleating of the Federal Open Mouth Committee putting downward pressure on the POG.
We all know the drill. And I hope more of us are becoming less susceptible to falling for the old 'wash, rinse, repeat' cycle. Like a bad soap opera that ran out of ideas long ago and has been moved to a sister channel, it will go a little something like this:
- talk up recovery and chances of imminent rate hike
- pressure on POG pushes it towards $1,320 and perhaps back down to $1,306
- FOMC decides not to raise rates September (BUT point to December being [very] likely)
- POG initially pushes back above $1,350 - $1,360
- within a few days, various FOMC members start intimating that December is basically a done deal
- at the same time, massive amounts of gold are dumped onto the COMEX, while shorts hit another historical high
- POG gaps down $15 - $20 in one hit, then starts to grind down
- then first Friday in October, September jobs come in at >200,000
- more jawboning about rate rise being 'imminent'/ full employment nearly reached (all those extra 'sandwich artists' at Subway)
- Goldman Sachs release puff piece that says chance of December rate hike 70%+
- myriad stories about gold having had its run and the shine coming off the PM investment class
- S&P hits another record high - impervious to any bad data dumps (bad news becomes 'good news' and good news remains good news)
- Scott and Charlene get married, even though Scott found out that Charlene wasn't a virgin at the motel that time they were just about to do it
- Lassiters Bar still unluckiest/ most maligned piece of real estate in Australia (earthquakes/ explosions/ scandals/ owned by Paul Robinson)
- Julian Assange makes cameo appearance, brings news that causes Mrs Clinton to leave Ramsay Street forever (not even TV Week saw that coming)
- market begins to crash in mid-October
- central bankers everywhere say they will do whatever it takes (even bringing Harold back to boost ratings)
- subsequent bear market rally proves to be merely stay of execution
- fully fledged melt-down into US election
- despite attempted election rigging, Alf becomes new mayor of Summer Bay (calls Yellen a flamin' drongo)
- POG hits $1,500 ($2,000AUD)
- EVN hits $4
- roll credits
EVN Price at posting:
$2.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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