Hi Wazdan - I recently tried to, but unsuccessfully, upload a pic of a chart drawn by Rickackerman.com for the US's 4-hourly crude futures. Because of being such a short period - as is yours above - and from past experience a few years ago, I don't rely on forecasting a price months out from now using as a basis such short-time chart periods, consequently prefer using weekly charts, for forecasting prices for several future weeks, likewise monthly charts for forecasting prices for several future months. May I suggest you upload a monthly chart to HC - from which you'll see that - IMO of course - that if Oil takes - from now - the same number of months to rise to ~ $65 (its price back in May15) - as it did to fall from $65 to its present price, in Nov15, i.e. 6 months) then that theory infers that the price will rise back up to $65 6 months from now - i.e. Mar17. Although that theory might sound like that of an eccentric retired accountant, if you go back and look at most of the charts you've ever compiled - that have volatility in their short-term price movements, you'll more often than not see that the same pattern applies from high to low in downward movements -and vicci verca - over the same timespan. Applying my theory further then, to get back up to $95 - Oil should take at least a further 8 months - after Mar17 - to get there - like it did to come down from ~$95 in Sep 14 to ~$52, and then back up to ~$65 in May15 - 8 months. Any other HC'er care to comment about this ?
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