IAM journey ahead, page-809

Guys let's not forget what we actually do know here, and nothing has changed in the last 2 days.

What we have:
- an exceptional board and management (cannot recall a better one)
- with not just their own, but family skin in the game
- huge reputations on the line
- an industry calling out for efficiencies and assistance
- Huge performance bonuses on the line
- Extremely well connected in the industry, with connections to all the big players.
- no competition
- first mover advantage

To me, the big unknown is the technology they have, and how far advanced it is.  Plus, I'd like most others, like some more information, but we have to realise there could be sensitive or private info, that they cannot release.

Now the financials, and what we know.  As @Glyco and many others have pointed out, all about the milestones and what is on the line.  To me, hitting milestones in 3 years looks something like this:

I'm waiting for the haters, but if milestones are met, this is very realistic, maybe even a bit conservative.  If you want proof of this, look at CL1, their NPAT and their MC.  Why does MF sign up to the milestones if not realistic.

My assumptions:
They will hit milestones, too much on the line to not.
12 month forward looking PE of 100, which is in line with similar companies, e.g. CL1
They will need to be hitting $5M NPAT in 12 months time, to be on track IMO
My PE is reducing as company matures (which may be too conservative)
Dilution due to performance shares is factored in.
I've assumed they've either, or about to hit M1.

Let me know if I've missed anything, as put together pretty quickly.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8
0		Est NPAT (M)	Aggregate	Milestones	SH + OP (m)	PE	Market Cap (M)	SP (PE 100)
1	15-16[/B]	1	1	1	1350	100	500	0.37
2	16-17	5	6	2	1600	80	880	0.55
3	17-18	11	17	3	1850	60	1380	0.75
4	18-19	23	40	4	2100	40	1800	0.86
5		45

DYOR, and if not for you, plenty else out there to make money on.