If you believe that the company is not in danger of imminent failure then on the basis of TA, it must be looking oversold. Someone might like to do a chart.
On the FA side of things, I've been trying to understand the situation and I agree with Kookaburra777 and others (and have posted similar thoughts myself): Although the grade from the recent bulk sample was good, the market was disappointed by the small quantity and possibly surmised that it would seem to be much more difficult to get the mine up to the initial 40,000 TPA. The expiring options probably have an impact too, as options holders scramble to raise some cash by selling so they can convert the November options. Add that to the probable leaky-ship syndrome.
Having previously spent considerable time looking at the possible EV that a variety of mining grades and tonnages mined may imply, I won't redo that work (fairly recent), but you are welcome to look at the
post (suggest you look at the whole short thread to get a clearer picture).
I'm not trying to up-ramp down-ramp or side ramp and I'm not trying to convince anyone to do anything -nor am I an expert, I've just put in some time and effort on this ...same as anyone could.
All that aside, I found a few pics from an OGX announcement in 2014 that may be insightful. They show the geological structure of the north wall of the Cascavel Winze, and they helped me understand the irregular nature of the gold seam (or blanket as it has been described) -and therefore some of the difficulties that are probably being encountered by management as they explore and discover the nature of the mineralisation (I'm not excusing management for over-promising):
View attachment 251942
View attachment 251957
View attachment 251960
When we consider that the gold bearing seam varies in thickness from less than 500mm to approx 4m in places (requiring different mining machinery and methods) it is easy for me to appreciate that initial setup will be complex. Add
"longhole stoping" where possible (as indicated by OGX) then the setup complexity increases (despite being very positive for dilution and production rate).
This reality is a far cry from the clean and simple diagrams:
View attachment 251993
View attachment 251996
I also found an informative (and reassuring) table regarding coarse gold mineralisation that compared previous drilling results / samples with subsequent results:
View attachment 251999
So here we are: am I very frustrated that the SP is at this level? Yes. But in truth, I'm more frustrated with myself for not recognising the impact of the signs that were visible. If we have good production results and the SP recovers in the next few months -will I survive? ...I think so.
To those of you who can only manage enough research to inspire derogatory posts with words like "if" and "it" and "dog" and "no idea", then you will be quickly on ignore ...I don't need the aggravation. I value my time (like most people) so I need to reduce the time and effort I spend feeding trolls.
Not many
imbeciles in the sin-bin at the moment ...but I think it's going to get more crowded in there.
Cheers,
SJB
