Ann: Trading Halt-IAM.AX, page-332

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Glyco

6,165 Posts.

2345

19/09/16

13:59

Post #: 19256006
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Originally posted by KDoc ↑

IIRC, they only have FSL's for WA & NSW so far, yes??

Wasn't that what came out of recent annc's?

Also @Glyco, I'm being a bit lazy now, but can I ask you to post up again (cause there've been so many posts about this already and you'll know exactly which one it was) how you're calc-ing the SP based on NPAT/Milestones?

Reason I ask is because I recall you coming out with P/E Ratios of 25/50/100, etc. They just make me a little uncomfortable.

With that said my own simple calc.(s) is/are somewhat less than yours, so I'm wondering where I'm going wrong.

E.g.

Let's just make it simple
1B SoI plus another 1B for MF and assoc. parties upon hitting milestones. So, let's just go with 2B total (and for the purposes of the exercise say they are all already on issue - despite knowing both otherwise plus the fact they are escrowed for 2yrs.**)

If I work on $40M NPAT - and again fully recognise I'm skipping the lower milestones.

i.e. P/E = SP / EPS

EPS = NPAT / SoI = $40M / 2B = $0.02

P/E = SP / $0.02

$0.02 * P/E = SP

Apply a simple P/E of 10 to that.

$0.02 * 10 = $0.20

(and now we're getting close to the no. MW mentioned in his infamous meeting. Curious how it comes together; he must've known something back then even, eh? )

A slightly more adventurous P/E - albeit still under yours - of 20 gives us an SP of $0.40

Now, I fully recognise there are myriad levels and value calc's in between $0.037 and the above no. Not least of which include revenues, milestones, targets and SoI at any given point in time.

But, in the long and short of it, is not the above calc based on reasonable logic for when M4 is finally hit?? More or less?

What am I missing/getting wrong?

** - Can't remember; these were escrowed from date of re-list or date of vesting?

Expand

@KDoc , @952i

Fyi

19255862

8.Net Profits After Tax:

Net profit

= (Revenue - cost of goods - operating expenses - other expenses - interest - taxes)

=NPAT

Cheers
G

Last edited by Glyco: 19/09/16

IAM Price at posting: 4.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Ann: Trading Halt-IAM.AX, page-332

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Ann: Trading Halt-IAM.AX, page-332

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