Vert, yeah, thanks for the lead.. Hulbert does seem to do his research and he also says, as you noted, that low vix is not necessarily a precursor to a fall in the indexes. Hulbert also says that he can find no evidence from his own research that the exponential rise on an index will be followed by an equal or dramatic fall...in fact the opposite... these sort of rises should be seen as signs of strength of the market...
Nonehteless, the US market does seem overstretched short term and is not the place for new money atm in my opinion.. this week may see a mild pullback as Thursday is thanksgiving holiday over there, friday is often lightly staffed and all markets are closed Thursday. Some markets close early friday or early wednesday as well.
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