Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge : 23-25 Sept

Originally posted by Sector Lead ↑

"Also when it comes to TA analysis we may see a excellent setup but they dont always play out,"

Agree, I only use them for mostly entry points myself...but my personal use is not the point
What I do see on HC, is many people pointing to the TA like this is going to happen, without understanding the success rate. here's the pattern, look, it's going higher.

I have been reading Zands site, and so many TA set-ups tested over 100s-1000s stocks have come up with 50-60% success rates, so if you're trading many times, then maybe 58% is an advantage. But if your main game is FA, with TA overlaid for timing, then I want to know only the best of best as there are just so many patterns you can call.

KISS

http://thepatternsite.com/CandleEntry.html

I decided to only focus on the reversals in top 10. Most of which have 70%+ up to around 80% max.

Tested the morning star last week on GPH, with 8.1c bottom. Supply dried up and finished 8.7c, little selling pressure, but also not enough buy urgency for mine to call it yet. Had around a 76% trend reversal success.

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Sorry haven't read the thread yet so not sure if this been discussed further but crucial point Sector Lead brings up there. You can take perfect TA entry 20 times and only have it play out 10 or 12 times, or less, and if your downside stop is not a lot smaller than your upside reward you end up coming out even or maybe losing considering brokerage, a lot of goddamn effort to scan the charts and have the balls to enter and so on, all for the odds of coming out even. That's stress you don't need in your life.

Fwiw I've just have three months without work and my first crack at the market. favourite pattern was a large, long, powerful ascending triangle off the bottom, preferably forming over a few months as a basing pattern. A gap long way above is a bonus. I'm woeful when it comes to keeping track of my stuff but I had a blackboard with about 25 I found, and think I could only find 4 that failed, and the rest made large upside moves. Wish I had the list but here's some codes off top of my head if anyone wants to check out the pattern and find some more?
Pxs 27-28
Mp1 2.40
Ami 080
Rvr 12
Hrr 10.5
GGG 034
Ctp 10
Will make an effort to keep track of next ones I find, have a feeling I'm missing some of the best ones in that list.

would've done so much better taking larger positions in these, plus a few more uptrend patterns coming to a tight range, and ignoring all the other patterns I was trying to find. And it would've taken much less work. Therein lies the time and patience to come up with a trading plan works for you. But yeah HC I feel like a lot of the time we post about a pattern and we all get excited and feel like it's 90% chance of working, which just isn't the case friends, so well worth looking up the success rates as Zand and Sector have, and even then, they are talking text book examples which we rarely get.

Going back to work tomorrow, got a boss again, wtf

Sorry guys got no new trade ideas haven't had charts for like a week.

This track is part of a lame movement, but I think it's quality