Eirhte
Either method, there is a clear break. Trendline break, retest of the upper trendline and rejects looking for a potential second resistance test.
Support also broken and re-tested new resistance and current another retest. So in this case support is the earlier signal of the potential developments.
Personally Dec 2015 rate hike just proves that correlation to the strong USD (through rate hike anticipations) have broken down and does not prove anything to me that I can use to extrapolate likely scenarios in the future. The market will do what the market always does and we usually build a reason around the justification of past event. If I were to use the Dec 2015 rate hike, then I am far more comfortable with the next one potentially in Dec 2016 to propel another big bull swing in gold rally.
Price predictions and then coming here with "I told you so" are for the punters. If they got it wrong then I don't see them coming over here and say so. I will categorically declare that I don't know where price is going. This is not saying I don't have a target in mind but just not cocky enough to say otherwise.
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