Long term view, page-22

G101 replied to a question at the beginning of the thread mate.

His response was a quote from Ahmed talking about the current state of play:

Certainly is getting very interesting. There are only two companies with an orphan drug designation for FSGS- Dimerix (A$25M Mcap) and Retrophin (>A$1Bn Mcap). Should DMX-200 "pass with flying colours" and therein validate the Receptor-HIT platform (although any significant reduction on proteinuria beyond irbersartan alone I feel validates the technology, flying colours or otherwise), then we are talking a serious valuation. The FSGS market is >$1Bn in the US alone. Orphan status (with 7 years exclusivity) means .... well, it means the company will probably get taken out after pivotal data. The value would have to be between US$0.5-1.0Bn I imagine with a significant upfront and decent milestones and royalties to follow; dependent on when that would occur. And should the technology platform therefore also pass with flying colours and produce more targets.. well- you've got a medium-sized biotech now. Again, very likely to be acquired by Pharma well in advance of this. To extract full value at that stage, we would have to be listed on the Nasdaq I believe. So I'd think somewhere between $0.50 to $1.00 conservatively should this occur.. Even with DMX-200, if proteinuria reduction can be safely shown to occur with the combination in excess of IRB alone, then we have a useful drug that is applicable to the broader CKD market. Although clinical trials to show this would have to be quite large and expensive, a pharma partner I think would find it very attractive to in-license. S0- orphan drug designation for FSGS or not, if DMX-200 shows decent proteinuria reduction (I'm looking for 20-25% reduction in this study) then I believe we have some very valuable. As a nephrologist friend of mine recently commented to me in general.. "any reduction in proteinuria is clinically beneficial".

Let's hope DMX-200 can provide meaningful benefit for a number of CKD patients in Australia and around the world.

Cheers
A.