us market, page-11

re: revisiting the past Cellulosic is a way off for two reasons:

1. The efficiency of the current range of microbes (most are created through GM) needs to be improved. This then reduced the cost of microbes as they are an input cost.

2. It is a big infrastructure project if you can imagine such bulky feedstock commodities in crop waste, organic waste, forestry waste etc. All of this initial bulky feedstock must be housed in digesting vats. So those investing in cellulosic need to be investing for the medium to longer term. Also need the security of high oil prices in this situation which is why Khosla has been advocating that the US government effectively tax oil prices should they fall below $55/barrel hence creating a minimum price. This means that OPEC (if they had the capacity to) cannot bankrupt these projects through price manipulation and removes the risk for investors of preparing for a world with increasingly expensive oil.