Banks look at risk when financing. So, when I look at my investment in TNG I have to weigh up the pros and cons like all other investors, as do banks who are really another form of investor. Lets look at what we have:
Pros: = +19
:) With 60% off-takes for both vanadium and pig iron I scored this at = +1 & +1
:) TIVAN not included in the NPV - this is a great big elephant in the room = +3
:) $4.9 Billion dollar non diluted resource = +3
:) $50 million dollar per annum OPEX savings identified = +2
:) High quality EPC's lined up to see this project through to production and beyond = +1
:) Gresham engaged to consolidate the finance package indicating traditionally <1year until a finance decision is tabled = +2
:) SMS will potentially finance and construct the TIVAN processing plant separately which removes approx. 40% finance requirements = +2
:) 75% finance dilution as has been mentioned will still give a share price in excess of $1, and as previously mentioned does not include either the $50m per annum OPEX saving, or the TIVAN process which can double the $1 share price by itself and make TNG a tech company with a massive mine on the side = +1
:) $100 million market cap @ $4.9 billion NPV. Contains 5% of the worlds consumption of titanium for 17 years. This project has completed almost all of the precursors to digging and is one of the largest project in the NT penned in to start construction an time in the near future. The governments gas tax revenue has taken a hit due to a moratorium on stimulation gas exploitation and will need the revenue to come sooner rather than later. In comes TNG, who with SMS have already met with the government leaders. I have modestly scored all of this at = +1
:) SMS have already built plants throughout the world who will benefit from a bolt on plug-and-play TIVAN refinery. This means SMS have a consolidated list of customers and the contact details of the big players. TIVAN could in theory finance TNG into the future = +2
Cons: = -10
:confused: German banks who will in all likelihood finance the project have uncertainty with the Deutshe bank potentially being fined $14 billion by the US for being pseudo-involved in triggering the GFC. They only have $4 Billion in reserves for court risks (I was always taught this was due to Leighman Bros and the flow on to the other US lenders but everyone likes to blame someone else at some stage don't they) = -1
:confused: Close to $1 billion CAPEX = -3
:confused: All government approvals not yet in place (EIS finalisation, mine exploitation licences) = -1
:confused: Not much % given back to current shareholders for the breakaway company Todd River Resources. This could also be viewed by the worst of the pessimists as a way for directors to still be gainfully employed should TNG not be able to be financed. Start afresh in Todd River rinse/repeat style. I however am an optimist and do not think that way and am just using this a devils advocate tool. I will however expect the directors to be either paid by TNG, or paid by Todd River, not both. = -1
:confused: No customer as of yet for titanium, the bread and butter product from Mt Peake = -3
:confused: The sales prices for the minerals produced from Mt Peake are listed above current global prices, but these are projected to increase to more than what is in the DFS. Still a negative risk = -1
View attachment 276038
So my calculations put risk/reward at (+19) - (-10) = +9.
There is a huge upside to this company, more than I have seen in the resources stocks, well, ever.
Feel free to update this list of Pros (and Cons, as these are also important tools) I have included, and we have a consolidated reference tool for hopefully potential investors. Join the ride, TNG is on the rise from now with a series of close announcements due very soon. It is not a gamble, we know what is upcoming, EIS due any day, hugely increased feasibility study taking into account TIVAN and OPEX. I cannot explain how big the future is, and the pre-work for this has been done, the waiting game is over. Get set and hold on
Wanderdog
(20min delay)