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About a tenth of the world's nickel supply is at risk after the Philippines widened its crackdown on miners, raising the chances of prices rallying by another 25 per cent through 2017, according to UBS, which had already billed the metal as one of its favoured commodities.
The nickel market is reeling after the Philippine government threatened to close another 14 mines last week, pending responses to an environmental audit. Of the 41 operations that were reviewed - the majority of them nickel producing - about three-quarters have either been halted or told they need to come up to scratch.
That puts 55 per cent of Philippine nickel output, or 11 per cent of global supply, at risk of exiting the market, according to UBS. Shutdowns raise the chances of nickel reaching $US6 a pound, or $US13,228 a tonne, by the end of next year, analyst Daniel Morgan said.
"A supply cut of about 10 per cent is a big cut in any commodity market," he said. "In the short term there is enough metal out there as a buffer for the next few months, so are the stainless steel customers anxious? I would say not yet, but they will be in 2017. Our base case is heading towards $US6 by the end of 2017 but there is every potential that a rally could go further."
Nickel is 20 per cent higher this year at $US10,575 a tonne, with the bulk of the gains coming since June, when incoming Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his pick as environment secretary, Gina Lopez, vowed to crack down on a mining industry they say is despoiling the land and threatening the livelihoods of the poor.
UBS named nickel as one of its most-preferred commodities in August, before the extent of the Philippine crackdown had become apparent. The Southeast Asian nation supplies nearly all of the ore used in China's stainless steel industry, and Citi has also warned that the "unexpectedly stringent" audit could materially tighten supplies.