xmag,
I expect a lot of the potential yes voters have voted by selling to the instos. So there is little doubt these intos would need to be on side to get 75% of the shares voting yes. As for 50% of the shareholders thats a tough call as one would expect this insto buying has left a larger % of no voters in the remainder of "retail" holders.
I think this is why they are encouraging early proxies so they can highlight any remedial action required. You would expect the result to be known on the Friday before the meeting (unless it is lineball). By encouraging early returns they may have a good idea well before this.
Obviously if you are sure you are voting No you should send in your proxy ASAP. If you are undecided or voting Yes then delaying till the last minute shouldn't hurt our cause.
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