just a thought...

Here's all the present substantial holding that we know of...

12 Jul  ML                     9.60%
03 Oct  Newton Investment      5.43%
24 Oct  UBS                    6.86%
02 Nov  Tullow via ML          4.25%
17 Nov  JP Morgan              5.05%
22 Nov  Deutsche Bank          5.54%
Total                         36.73%  
 

Excluding the Tullow holdings of 4.25%, the other institution now hold a collective blocking stake of more than 25%. Bear in mind that a 75% approval is required for the scheme to be voted through. ML obviously holds the key here as they seem to hold the swinging vote of 9.6%. Even if they voted for it, the other 4 holds 22.88% - which would make it a touch and go decision for them. I suspect that is the reason why they are calling people. Another 2.13% of no votes, and the scheme is gone – which although could be bad for shareholders in the short term (assuming no other bid), will be even worse for Potter and the whole board. This is because they instigated and supported the deal. If it doesn’t get through, I'd be surprised if they are not given the vote of no confidence. So, that leaves them with one option - do another backhand deal with Tullow to increase the bid price.

This episode may not be over just yet.

Can someone who is going to attend the Perth session please clarify exactly how much each of the directors, including our gutless wonder CEO, will be getting IF this deal does go through? I scanned through the Expl Memo document but couldn't find anything.

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