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12/10/16
13:07
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Originally posted by andy777
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I think on balance this announcement was a good thing. Not only does it provide some clarity around who will be running the company (effectively M2 management) it also provides some numbers for synergies, something not clear until now. Going from around 400m EBITDA (annualised quarterly result from management presentation) this FY, 200m in earnings looks reasonable. Add to this 53-55m or so in synergies announced today and earnings should be around 250m in FY18 without any organic growth. Using a MC of 3.35B yields a prospective PE of 13ish under the no growth scenario. I have been running some comparisons with TPG as I am naturally attracted to industries out of favour. Whilst TPG is probably better quality with more inhouse infrastructure it is also more expensive - running at probably around 1.4 times the proposed earnings multiple for VOC. Hence as of a few minutes ago I am a holder. Note this is just my judgement call and as always I am probably too early (I am a shocking trader and just buy on value).
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good post esp using FY18 as the yr integration will reap full benefits. These things take time and synergies not achieved without a huge amount of work. Inevitably job losses will result in several layers of management.