brokers, page-13

re: brokers acamas Hi gents,

In all fairness to Acamas, disagreements aside, he was a poster on ADVFN well before the TO offer. I don't buy the cash flow difficulties either as I've mentioned a few times before. We've recently had a discussion on ADVFN about the issue for the umpteenth time which I'll add below for those interested. Can only stir the pot a bit more ! ;)

Makes one very cynical, and as far as I am concerned the HDR management team have totally sold the shareholder down the river and got away with it. Pity there isn't an ASIC investigation to identify the behind the scenes shenanigans.


Totally agree dynofish! ... The HDR management team have certainly sold the shareholder down the river and got away with it. ASIC ... Haa ! .. Where was Richard O'Shannassy when ML breached the 5% level ? He's kept us well informed on substantial holder updates since!

Cheers,
xmagx

From ADVFN.

Acamas - 5 Dec'06 - 07:35 - 9445 of 9464


Poo Bear,

Morning.

It is bad news just one more problem on top of the others. Who in their right mind would outbid TLW's . There has to be other O & E companies out there that look more attractive than HNR if you are seeking to grow your business by M & A


poo bear - 5 Dec'06 - 07:40 - 9447 of 9464


Acamas - I hope in a way the Tullow back out.............

Mauritania looks a real mess.

By the way Barkara may have drilled a dry hole at Heron-1 I understand.

I will try to confirm it with a link.


Acamas - 5 Dec'06 - 08:59 - 9449 of 9464


Poo Bear,

Thanks for your support over on HC

This is dreadful news for HNR. Ching is a real headache. The JV's need success in Mauritania to get back their investments so far. WPL need to pick a winning strategy

regards

Acamas

poo bear - 5 Dec'06 - 09:14 - 9450 of 9464


Acamas - they are not all narrow minded over there, just a few.

I note they ignore me competely.

The main thing is that 618 supported our view and he is probably the best Oz poster on any board let alone HC.

He used to post here, but has lost interst now like most.

Sterlings holding up well, obviously it has not yet connected re Chinguetti, but it will eventually.



Acamas - 5 Dec'06 - 09:34 - 9451 of 9464


Poo Bear,

As you say some of them do not live in the real world. If Tullow withdrew and nobody replaced them then they would have a real nasty shock. Maybe Mauritania will be placed on the back burner due to poor performance over the coming 12 months if things continue as they are. If that happens then SEY will need a replacement oil producing area hopefully Madagascar or Kurdistan.


Rayrac - 5 Dec'06 - 09:51 - 9452 of 9464


I suppose if you think about it, Mauritania has no Shell or BP type companies interested, whereas Nigeria and Angola have. Doesn't that speak volumes?

23,000 bopd, as long as the quantity of oil is still down there what does it matter? But I'm pleased to have sold my HNR. :)

TLW? Well they are not even now, in my opinion, overpaying. Especially in the medium/long term.


xmagx - 6 Dec'06 - 00:04 - 9459 of 9464 edit


Poo bear & Acamas,

You guys are far from ignored! It called an opinion. Call it narrow minded, call it what you will! We don't have to agree to all get along.

As we've gone through before, there are many options for the company. Have a look at what ROC did with their China acquisition. From practically zero production to 12K bopd overnight!. I'm not saying Hardman should have taken this route, it's merely 1 of many options. The company could have spun out another play with say 25% of block 2 in Uganda, 10% of the Falklands and perhaps 40% of Guyane. I'm sure raising funds wouldn't have been a problem at all. We just have to look at the likes of FOGL, GBP, BKP, ect to draw that conclusion IMHO.

As Rayrac mentioned, the oil is still there. It comes down to optimising the field design to suit the reservoir.

Sure we are well below production capacity but in the scheme of things, the oil price has offset most of the difficulties encountered. Chinguetti still generates a robust revenue base in it's own right even after we take everything into account. Remember the economics were worked around a $25 a barrel oil environment.

Let's say production was as expected at 75K bopd with a US$25 oil price.

75K bopd multiplied by US$25/b gives us $1.875M per day.
23K bopd (average is much higher) multiplied by US$63/b gives us $1.449M per day.

Get production over 30K bopd once a few technical issues are sorted along with the first of many Ching remedial wells and the figures exceed the original plan.

30K bopd multiplied by US$63/b gives us $1.89M per day.

Better get back to my fantasy world!

Cheers,
xmagx


Acamas - 6 Dec'06 - 05:47 - 9460 of 9464


xmagx,

Thanks for the above.

The figures read well on paper and balance out for Mauritania. I think The Board was worried that it could not meet its financial upcoming commitments for Mauritania, Uganda and the reduced Guyane area from The Ching cashflow. They may have made a decision under pressure to sell out to a large company with more financial support than HDR was able to muster. I/We shall never know the real reason for the sell out so we must speculate

One point I am not clear about is the percentage option when you say they could have spun out 40% of Guyane. I do not know if this was ever an option because I read somewhere that HDR returned Guyane licenses to the French Government because they were time expired and HDR had not completed the preliminary work required under the contract. Thinking about this I then came to the conclusion the licenses were non transferable. Is my thinking right or wrong here? But it could answer why some of this area was not sold on by HDR to ease their current problems.

regards

Acamas



poo bear - 6 Dec'06 - 06:59 - 9461 of 9464


Hello xmagx :)



xmagx - 6 Dec'06 - 08:59 - 9462 of 9464 edit


Hi Acamas,

Thanks for your reply.

As far as I am aware in regards to Guyane, Hardman negotiated a 12 month extension. I very much doubt such a clause would exist as I'd imagine Governments would prefer to see majors involved. Anyway, it was just an example as the 25% of block 2 in Uganda would have been an attraction in itself considering success to date.

Not worth going around in circles anyway mate. What we think won't make any difference to the outcome. We either see another bidder enter the arena, otherwise it's all over red rover :(

Appreciate your efforts,

xxoo poo bear ;)


Cheers,
xmagx