rio short term part 2, page-6

Nice to see some more Ellioters around these days. Of course there are as many counts as chartists, but I have been keeping a count on this one since 1997 and have seen no reason to change it in that time. You really need to keep a long term perspective for successful Elliott charting

Impulse wave Oct 1997 to May 2001. 15.20 to 38.64.
Flat correction since then:
A wave May-Sep 2001, B wave Sep-Feb 2002
C wave (5 waves) Feb 2002 to present (probably finish late 2004)
- wave 1 Feb-Oct 2002
- wave 2 Oct 2002- Jan 2003
- wave 3 Jan 2003-present
On this last wave we have had a series of wave 1's of successively smaller degree. I think we are now on wave iii of the downwave starting 7/4/03. So a long way to go on the downside yet.

So far the wave structure has largely been driven by AUD/USD. The next upwave will be driven when slow inflationary forces start to bite and Asia starts to roll - but that will be quite a while.