the same business earning $1m per year can be valued (by the market) at say $6m or $10m or $15m depending on market conditions, you can get everything right in your assessment of the business and its risks but if you buy when the market is buoyant and general sentiment turns you can still get it wrong...unless you have a long term outlook you can't ignore market risk Clark Kent...maybe you do have a long term horizon I don't know
