24th October is very close, page-45

Assuming the Sales notice is deemed valid, MIN have until 31 October to either accept or decline the ROFR. If they accept, it has to be on no less economic terms than the deal with GLC. That seems to be very clear from the Judgement the other day, where the ROFR was detailed by the Judge.

Now, the next issue will be that MIN cannot match the offer from GLC in practical terms because they do not have the refining IP that GLC does apparently. So, I would imagine, there would need to be a calculation done, whereby if MIN were to buy the offtake, it would need to be at a price which matched in pure economic terms, the value attributable to the GLC deal. Ipso facto, I cannot see the ROFR being taken up by MIN, because my guess is that the economic value attributable to the deal with GLC, inclusive of the downstream JV value, would simply render the offtake uneconomic to MIN.

We then revert to the question of the Royalty. MIN is presumably going to want the Royalty based on as high a price as possible. That assumes this ROFR was and is transferrable. That may well depend upon representations made in recent proceedings, given the laws of Estoppel, as explained to me by a learned Barrister just the other day. I would imagine PLS had reserved its rights and that was made very clear in the recent proceedings, but I am only guessing.

So, I think, at worst there is going to be some argy bargy about the calculation of the Royalty. Something I have been saying for some weeks.

I am sure it will all become clear as we move forward.

The thing which I keep pondering is just how HUGE this resource is. GBG knows something...lol. I do my numbers on what I think the resource may be, and I think patience will be rewarded here!