Interesting post. I'm clueless on TA. The idea of a WPL stake is a fascinating one but without saying too much I think you're downplaying some of the cultural issues and assuming rational behaviour which in my humble (and probably biased) opinion is currently AWOL. A conventional approach would be not to try and duke it out etc, but to cut a deal on the PE - i.e. split the difference and let FAR have some but keep the bulk. That would be second prize (the first being them taking the lot which I think is looking unlikely). Taking a position in FAR would be well down the list I think and would require some painful implicit acknowledgments.
The funding monkey is well-described as is your description of predictability and I completely agree. It's an interesting dilemma. So should they for example take the lot and flick it all with a risk free back-to-back and solve their funding issues for a very long time (i.e. exercise and sell immediately and clip the ticket)? Or is that short term gain for long-term detriment? Sometimes the market is stupid and shortsighted. To my mind who cares is we get a bundle of cash if that means missing the chance to buy so much at such a depressed price AND the chance to end up with sufficient % to be a better M&A prospect. 15% is not enough.
You needn't worry about the wells or trump. And if they were to PE the lot I think the market would embrace it very positively.
Anyway, just my two cents worth.
FAR Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)