Hello Crazy, a fall to just below the September low of $4.92 to around $4.85 is very likely, at 75%. My $4.35 is the worst case. So, it is always good to allow for it.
The idea or approach to sell and wait on the sidelines means one would be scared. And things can go wrong if you get scared. Never be scared in life.
About waiting 4 months for next dividend, well time only moves forward and before you know it, February ex div date will arrive. And before you know it August 2017 div will follow.
Another reason I am comfortable with holding, there is also a chance that the pattern of past 2 months turns out to be a kind of W shape. That is, we get a bounce that goes near to closing the gap around $5.40 first, then we get the decline to under $4.85.
When TLS goes to fill the gap I mention, it needs to fill it fully and with no hesitation. And for that, it needs to reach $5.46. Fully reach and touch $5.46. If it gets close to reaching it but is 2-3 cents short of it and falls immediately, that then is bearish.
The case for an attempt first to $5.30-$5.40 is the current positive divergence that has developed on the RSI and DMI. Watch the 22 EMA line. Currently, TLS is having trouble overcoming it. For upside to come, TLS must clearly trade and sit above the 22 EMA, not bellow it as it has. This will be the first sign of positive things. Just 2 days ago, the intraday high went up to touch the 22 EMA, but was rejected. So, currently, TLS is bearish. We should know by around the first week of November which direction it is about to choose.
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