What you say is correct for the 'polls' but the bookies have to take an educated guess, and have money riding on it, so can't go set odds on personal preference.
The difference in U.S. elections, is there's no compulsion to vote, which, I believe goes in Trumps favor. Many of Hillary's voters may think that she already has it won, and Don does the Paul Bradbury.
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Trump to romp it in, page-253
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