Regarding HDR - I must admit in terms of my Gang of Four (AYO, ARQ, PSA & HDR) it is certainly a very distant 4th at present. The coup may have failed but it scares the sh%t out of people especially people putting in $$$ ala Ching Development. Although as you stated the volume and price is moving up so generally the market is not expecting bad news.
ARQ is also strengthening at 72c which is its all time high. Quarterly out end of July should show a good bottom line if indeed the Hovea plant is running at 5,000 bpod which ARQ I think recently confirmed. Eremia will no doubt come on line quickly before the end of 2003 and move the plant up to its current 8,000 bopd capacity in the near term. TAP must be kicking themselves they just didn't 'go for the doctor' on ARQ when they had the chance.
PSA - Holding nicely awaiting the forthcoming drilling. Whilst AYO may be 'Media Tarts' - you would have to say that PSA fit well into the 'Howard Hughes' category! However they are probably better off just getting on the with the job. I think a lot of punters have bad memories of PSA shares from not that long ago. However certainly can't complain about the rise from 20c odd - thanks again. I do believe the current price reflects a fair degree of assumed success in the forthcoming drilling. It moved up from 60c without any real good news.
This leaves AYO.
Have to say first up that whilst they do crank out announcements - most of the recent items have been newsworthy - such as the CAY & ADA Developments and of course Whicher Range Drilling. As far as the daily drilling updates you can't have an issue with these. Regarding the bi-monthly updates - well I guess the problem here is they are often repetitive somewhat - they have been saying the same thing about connecting customers for months now but I guess they are only reporting the facts and they are in Turkey not downtown Houston GOM - things take time in countries like Turkey - personally I was scared off Turkey for life having watched the Movie 'Midnight Express' although the jail visit by the blokes girlfriend was a highlight!.
Overall however the bi-monthly it still great communication. The boys on the Stockhouse Canada Omax Board can't believe the YES-1 daily drilling updates. Apparently over there you might hear nothing at all from spud until the result!
Regarding YES-1 AYO of course hold 80% of this drill so success will be 'sheep stations'. I wish I'd bought a few more at 84c after the ADA panic and AYOO at 27c. There is a lot of further drilling happening in 2003 with AYO post YES-1 including some very good targets in their 3599 License which is 100% owned and so prospective - that apparently AYO have never remotely considered farming out.
I can't argue with you regarding your comments relating to the current Cash Flow situation but there are a few interesting things happening now:
1. As per their Quarterly 3/2003 this quarter was something of a 'watershed' for AYO. Revenue for the three months was over $5m which was more then the previous two quarters combined. They would certainly have been cash flow positive (Production and Admin was just on $2m) if not for the ongoing drilling and Grocerler plant upgrades. In fact the same will be the case no doubt for the latest quarter and through to the end of 2003. They are drilling a lot of wells. Plus two new plants/pipelines (admittedly quite small) at CAY & ADA.
2. If we assume that they finally crank Grocerler up to 20mcf this would be around 60% increase on current sales. Gross revenues for the last two quarters of 2003 should therefore be perhaps around $8m per quarter.
3. As AYO have stated CAY and ADA will hopefully come on stream before the end of 2003. Not huge but at a total of say 14mcf (100%) it is quite possible AYO will be earning $10m in the first quarter 2004. Not that far away. You would have to say that AYO are moving strongly into a cash flow positive situation.
I think Tony Barton might have been misquoted in the West Aust last week when he was reported as saying..
"Amity is forecast to book a profit of $6 million to $8 million for 2002-03, with earnings jumping to $20 million to $30 million in the current financial year."
2002/2003 is June to June I believe. I would not be surprized if earnings were something like $30m for the 12 months ending June 2004 with Groceler, CAY & ADA up and running.
4. Of course while all this is going on they still have that $15m odd sitting nicely in the Bank. CAY and ADA will be financed mostly from cash flow and I some working capital. They are also in the fortunate position of having the AYOO Options 'in the money' and still 15 months away until expiry. I think they are very confident of picking up another $38m odd at that time.
5. Finally we have the mega 'blue sky' - YES and WR but they are on another scale entirely.
