Not to sound like a broken down record player, but those "brain surgeons" at Macquarie [rather loose description] are at it again. This morning they put out a research piece on NMT. They have an outperform recommendation on the stock - despite a current share price of $0.36 and a 12-month forecast valuation of $0.40 per share. These numbers are worse than the numbers Mac Bank published for GXY ($0.35 share price versus 12-month target price of $0.40), yet they rate NMT an outperform and GXY an underperform....... how does that work??
But, more importantly, when you look at their modelling assumptions they clearly show a bias in their modelling assumptions. See extracts below of exchange rate forecasts and Li carbonate equivalent forecasts for the next few years.
Oh, and don't let the FY16e for GXY price fool you (@ US$7,547/t versus $6,114 for NMT) as they assume only 1.3kt LCE production output for GXY in FY16.
Talk about making the numbers reflect the result they want to portray in the market!!!
The question is: how can the same research house have such a variance on key assumptions for the same variables between similar companies???
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