Bottom picking and top picking is madness. Just get rid off any thoughts about picking the best price. Commit yourself to a position that you can hold at a price that is 'fair/discount' value. Markets are an auction to discover price. If you try to make full price discovery you'll lose money - you are not big enough. Best to let someone else make full price discovery and trade close to the volume. Read Steidlmayer.
Why markets go up and go down matter less than what you can do to make money. Who gives a jolly why prices move the way they do.... or if it's a bull rally or a bear rally.... or whether you're 'right' or 'wrong'.... especially if you're a day/swing trader. Fundamentals are for longer time horizons and macro trading. In the futures market, if you hold size, you're paying premium on the time scale. Be ruthless and get rid off any emotions holding you back.
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