ALA 4.17% 18.8¢ arovella therapeutics limited

$34 mil over the next 15 yrs in royalties, page-21

  1. 1,251 Posts.
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    Its like reading tealeaves Blue.

    But this latest chapter in the story hasn’t gone to script at all.

    The two biggest SUD critics on these threads would be Pogues and me.

    Pogues had odds of 1000 to 1 against a deal. Mine would have been higher.

    So credit where credit is due ...a proper deal for proper money has been done and well done to the dynamic duo.

    Its nothing short of a miracle. Probably literally saves the day.

    My guess as to where the share price was going to go yesterday? Between 3-4c. Even 5c wouldn’t have surprised me with some day trader interest.

    Instead it went nowhere. I was completely wrong.

    Wide spread bar (2.0-2.7), very high volume and closed down (in bottom third of bar).

    So in VSA terms a upthrust bar. Professional selling trapping in novices at higher prices. A sure sign of weakness.

    But this makes no sense. If the card carrying down-rampers think its good ... well it must be good.

    There are two non-answers.

    The first is stale retail holders cannot exit by orchestrating a 20% jump in sp to sell out on.

    Second neither did Trump impact on dozens of other speccy shares.

    One answer is that there is a CR just around the corner. At a price lower than 2.6c

    On the positive this is better than the previous scenario of Bergen type funding because no-one would support a CR.

    Probably quite a number of shareholders now would support this as the first deal has been done and the monkey is off the back.

    This is reflected in the positivity here were most posters if they could would happily buy more. Not perhaps thinking about who exactly is on the other side of the trade. And what they might know (or think they know).

    The funny thing is we are not all wrong about the deal being a great thing. It is.

    But it has pulled SUDs neck out of the noose that most here didn’t think it was in it in the first place. Fundamentally very good news reveals a gaping crack below the technical waterline.

    We shall see though. Naturally this line of thought is discordant with everything the company is saying and everyone on here is thinking.
    Last edited by Southoz: 10/11/16
 
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