The Brains Trust - 2016, page-13305

banks during gfc similar churn at lows and before you know it churn over and spike to new highs

dealing with fib levels now on the macquaries of the world but easy run already over fbs a lot harder and only one gfc a generation. well jfc was pretty bad

anyway looking at current materials charts

zinc new highs again underway. nickel broken out

winners already trading

igo speed angle to $5 has to be complete surely. when it retook $4.50 high then pretty quick and confident thrust up to $5 before profit taking. should see partial retrace and if holds the break above $4.50 then rinse and repeat. will see how looks in cold light of day before decide if out here and reassess or hold and reassess

wsa similar position here. big run today. needs to retake $3.24 high to see a speed angle same as igo to new levels.

s32 ozl we spoke about

will see if specs lower down follow the lead of the midcaps here or not rvr ibg pan various success this week. rare opportunity here just same as gfc was for the banks. once rerate is over then too late

if look at $US chart can see unwound from this level over 10 years from double top in 2002 to 2012. if look at chart of metals like silver can see the growth and final spike from 2002 to 2012 before the rapid demise. it all coincided with the inverse $US chart. $US up metals down.

same in 2016. first 6 months $US in decline and silver and gold spiking up then last 5 months the reverse

so who wins now

japan and us both fighting each other to win the currency and balance of trade war

trump made it clear that US first so he may insist on policy that keeps $US low. that means no rates rise. but also bonds jpy euro and gbp to take into account. not to mention china

no idea in end other than market now repricing metals and today was a rare end to months of churn on these stocks

it started last week and will see from here

we had seven years of asx minerals a basket case so will see if new cycles play out. started last year and cycle fully underway here.

one thing i have noticed over the years is that once get a momentum shift then it normally continues for a fair while

spx 7 year channel gave me the complete heebies. banks grew on asx and reits and not much else

different market here. wpl ore bhp ncm spring to mind. could do worse than just sit on these here for a fair while and leave the markets alone