And yet the sell-off continues. Every time you think it might start to run because there's a new fund buying/spruiking (Norges, Aitken), the sell side pressure from exits is more than enough to offset.
Things to like:
- Top line growth - outdoor share of ad market is growing due to population growth, digital mix switch, outdoor not susceptible to audience fragmentation in the way that TV/radio/newspapers are
- Static to digital conversion has a long way to go for APO
- Solid balance sheet
- Growing dividend
- Undemanding valuation relative to market and peers, when adjusted for growth
- Sector leader
- Industry revenue data is released every month, which gives far better insight into performance between reporting periods compared to most other sectors
- Solid sell-side broker support, with majority buy recommendations (though this doesn't seem to have swayed the buy side to pile in of late!)
Things not to like:
- Media is definitely on the nose as a general rule - the ASX 300 Media sub index is down 18% in the last 3 months
- High share price volatility
- Now that it has upgraded earnings and the benefit from that has washed through, there are no real catalysts before Feb 2017
- No real consolidation / takeover opportunity given high market share and lack of synergies between outdoor and other media
- Management credibility at a low ebb
I'm back in at ~$5.20
APO Price at posting:
$4.98 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held