My calculations were on the conservative side. Underlying EBITDA of US$3.8B, Profit before tax US$2.1B. (D&A US$1.2B, others Finace cost/income etc US$0.4B, probably less this FY). Rating agencies should review FMG after 2 x Debt Repayment this FY, they mentioned on their last upgrade that if FMG keep paying off their debt, they would consider another upgrade. Plus outlook for IO is better than 6 months ago, I‘m sure FMG will get upgraded again after this Debt Repayment.
FMG SP really depends on IO price. $60 - $5.50-5.80, $65 - $6-6.30, $70 - $6.50-$7. Debt Repayment would add 30-50c & rating upgrade 20-30c. All these are just my opions, SP has a lot to do with Market Sentiment towards IO price rather than the actual price.
I can‘t even predict SP for next week so I won‘t even try on end of FY18, hehe.
I‘m a lot confident today than I was on Friday, I think the market panic a bit, I think SP should recover a bit this week.
DYOR.
Frank.
Repost - Query concerning FMG cost coverage and breakeven, page-28
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Last
$21.86 |
Change
0.040(0.18%) |
Mkt cap ! $67.30B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $22.18 | $22.18 | $21.69 | $119.2M | 5.445M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14450 | $21.85 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $21.87 | 152 | 1 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 09/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| FMG (ASX) Chart |