It was something you posted about 2 years ago stemming from a conversation you'd had with someone from an insto or brokerage. I did a cut and paste at the time for my own ‘trading tips’ file but it seems to have somehow gone to silicon heaven. Thanks, if it's no trouble.
I have never thought that the past can foretell the future, but he/she who studies the past can on occasion see similarities which provide a pointer in an overall sense. I think it was Mark Twain who said something alone the lines that the past doesn't repeat but it rhymes.
Where I believe TA gives its skilled practitioners a slight edge is that enough unskilled practitioners believe in it sufficiently to make it self-fullfilling on occasion.
I personally make no claim to skill, sticking strictly to P&F charts. If I happen to see a pattern that allows me to draw a trendline, great, but that’s all it is. Sometimes they hold, sometimes they don’t.
Ultimately my philosophy is that of Nassim Taleb. I know nothing of the future and there are ‘black swans’ and ‘fat tails’ everywhere. I’m comfortable with my ignorance.
Forrest I think you’re right. The best way to trade/invest is a trend following system. But that presumes you can predict a rising market/sector/stock, and feel confident that you’re early in the cycle. Not easy, but certainly the percentage play.
PS I had to smile too, but I admire the fact that this thread has managed to persist without degenerating into a slanging match, as happens so often here.
