NTI (ASX) The reason why valuation is so low....

Originally posted by Newrotothis ↑

I'd like to avoid the back patting, meaningless trading chat and blind stock pushing on this thread please. If possible I'd like to discuss the reasons why this has been IPO'd at such a low valuation, what the risks are and perhaps similar products that have worked and not worked. My background is 12 years in professional portfolio management for both buyside and sell side firms in London, but zero experience in healthcare or tech. This company is of particular interest as it clearly is either worth nothing or 20x this valuation.

These are questions I'd ask an analyst before investing. If any of you can answer any, I'd be very appreciative. But I also think this will be useful for anyone who is considering investing, or has already.

1. Who is the Italian order from and how was it won? When is the first shipment? What is the break clause? When is there scope for an increase?

2. What patents are owned by AAT or NTI, how long are they for? Are there any similar products on the market or in development from any of the big guys?

3. How was the IPO valuation calculated by Azure? The people here that argue it's worth $1 in the short term need to stop wasting readers time, as there is no way the company would have agreed to an IPO at 20c. So what are the hurdles to this kind of level?

4. Obviously FDA is key, May next year we think? However it is clearly key that it is recognised as a specific tech to fight autism, not just a medical product. Has this been achieved in Europe yet? Is there precedent that FDA conclude differently from Europe CE? I assume it's difficult to explain to a Californian mother why she can't help her child like a German mother can... So I recognise the sensitivity.
What can come out of AGM? Presumably all positives that could have been used in order to get the IPO away successfully, have been. So this could be a nothing done. I wouldn't hold out any big hopes if you have the stock for this event.

5. What is the cost of production ($951 is AUD or USD?. What is to sale price in the order? What is the RRP or are we just guessing that it is $2k -2450? I assume this price comes down aggressively with how many are ordered? What are the ongoing costs of research & development? I.e. How much profit do we lose in attempts to develop other products? I assume this is unusually high in health tech and at this stage of a business? Which makes more sense that valuation is low... Because there won't be any profits for a few years, no matter how many orders are won. Success in autism doesn't guarantee success in battling depression or epilepsy (it goes without saying that we all hope their success rate is 100%!).

6. If a price doesn't make sense, then usually it's you who is not seeing something... Not the market. Here we clearly have a huge valuation disparity here with potential. So therefore what is the biggest risk? FDA don't approve.... Stock -50% as US mkt closed. Then they still have European markets/Aus, but does this hit the brand image? For what reason might FDA not approve/ not recognise specific to Autism?
What if Italian order is pulled? Main question is why it is pulled... Problem in testing/problem in feedback / problem in delivery. Three different outcomes. But meanwhile the stock is -50% anyway.
Failure to catch on in other European countries. This would be a slow bleed. Goes back to question 1, why is the Italian client so confident to go ahead and order? I notice the certification is done in Italy, can anyone confirm this? That would be a big positive, as of course orders will come as word spreads.

7. Does this product actually work (I read somewhere 70per cent, but where is this from?). Are there any parents on this chat that have used or had experience of the headband (no inside info obvs!)? How do we measure it's success? What is the scope of the trials? How was the technology developed and over what time period? Why has it not been done by someone else?

I look forward to a fruitful discussion. I am also happy to answer any questions from a trading perspective, having worked with some of the best in the business.

Regards. New subscriber & New to Neuro.

Expand

No 3. We are not wasting time or dreaming it's worth a few dollars and with your claimed background you should know that ASX requires for all IPOs to have a listing price of 20c

It's the market that judges the price. Maybe you should look at other IPOs at 20c that are $2.00

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	499081	1.7¢

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499081

1.7¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.8¢	76541	3

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1.8¢

76541

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	35521	0.018
3	499081	0.017
7	764000	0.016
6	1456079	0.015
2	270063	0.014

No.

Vol.

Price($)

35521

0.018

499081

0.017

764000

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1456079

0.015

270063

0.014

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.018	76541	3
0.019	324439	3
0.020	649998	2
0.021	167015	1
0.022	237000	3

Price($)

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No.

0.018

76541

0.019

324439

0.020

649998

0.021

167015

0.022

237000

(20min delay)
Last 1.8¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $18.89M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.8¢	1.8¢	1.8¢	$1.901K	105.6K

The reason why valuation is so low...., page-2

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