Each to their own . Of course there will be pressure on the price in the near term. This happens every time an acquisition occurs.
I don't doubt there has been more tension/vendor awareness re bidding. Not from IPH as they cant bid given their market share is at a limit. I would say Griffith Hack is a premium target which warrants a higher multiple. If it was an IPO on its own at 10.5 times EBITDA I reckon it would still be attractive. Xenith was done at 12 plus and is smaller. Then add the synergies. Cost side - if they achieve 6 which is probably quite conservative that brings the multiple down to 7.5. Then add the revenue synergies which are not even stated - GH brings new service lines to the other 2.
I like that they have got almost to their target scale in one hit (two with Watermark). Apart from small more specialist add ons there is only an Asian presence to come in the nearish future. The fee train from here isn't that attractive.
This is a cottage industry - highly fragmented. The industry participants have only been able to incorporate a few years ago. This needed to occur first before consolidation could happen. The three listed entities are now consolidating the industry and have made this strategy clear from the start . This is normal evolution for an industry particular one which is process driven and open to efficiency improvements through technology. Going forward you will need to be big with greater regional or even global reach/breadth of service to survive.
IPH enjoyed a first mover advantage which meant they played lower multiples but they would never have got GH at 6.5.
XIP Price at posting:
$3.02 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held