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AdvertisementWith the release of Australian commercial television's half-yearly advertising revenue share figures on the horizon, the next few weeks could be a gruelling time for some executives.

Analysts are expecting Kerry Stokes' powerhouse Seven Network to finish ahead of rival Nine for the first time, with a 36-37 per cent share of revenue from Australia's $2.8 billion metropolitan TV advertising market in the half ending December 31.

The Ten Network is hoping ratings hits such as The Biggest Loser will translate to a 3 per cent increase in share of revenue to 30 per cent.

But Nine could be bracing itself for bad news, with analysts tipping a decrease from 36.6 per cent in the June half of 2006 to between 34 and 35 per cent in the December half.

One analyst estimated its share could drop to a low of 33 per cent. "We are forecasting 33 per cent to 34 per cent," said Fusion Strategy analyst Steve Allen. "If it was 33 per cent it would be a terrible result."

Although Nine won the ratings battle in 2006, it is likely to be affected by a poor performance from Perth affiliate Sunraysia Television, which expects to post a loss in its first half ending December 31 after a 12 per cent decline in revenue.

However, the ratings and revenue bonanza delivered by the dramatic 5-0 Ashes cricket series may be a last-minute saviour.

"The expectation is that the cricket has allowed them to be quite good," said media buyer and emitch chairman Harold Mitchell.

Nine sales director Peter Wiltshire said he could not comment until the figures had been released.

Ten appears confident it can regain revenue share lost in the first half of 2006 after media buyers snubbed programs such as The Biggest Loser, which turned out to be a ratings winner.

Free TV Australia is expected to release the ratings figures towards the end of January.

Advertising revenue for commercial radio released last week showed it remained virtually steady at $599.6 million for 2006, rising just 1.4 per cent.