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lordsmasher

737 Posts.

52

07/12/16

14:53

Post #: 21170417
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Originally posted by JID ↑

Hi SA1588,

I thought that the harvests from here til 2021 were of similar size to each other, due to similar planting sizes c. 15 years ago.

Are you referring to the % of the harvest directly owned by TFC vs. third parties or is it something that I have missed?

In reference to the warrants, these were issued to the original investors in the Senior Note Issue. TFC have paid out the existing notes and refinanced them. The warrants, however, still exist and will be exercised in 2018 if the SP is >$1.28 which you'd assume.

The economic data out today should mean a lower AUD if it leads the RBA cuts interest rates further which some analysts (e.g. macrobusiness.com.au) are predicting. Good for TFC's non-cash profitability as their plantations increase in value and the 2017 investment proposition becomes more attractive to US based institutional investors.

Cheers
John

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They are similar except the FY19 harvest is only 48 Ha, compared to FY16 (the recent) of 104.
Ownership of FY17, FY18 and FY19 are 55%, 26% and 29% compared to 84% for FY16.
That only affects the sandalwood sales but still means cash EBITDA will halve in FY20.
I assume TFC will attempt to purchase more of the future harvests so the ownership will change.

TFC Price at posting: $1.67 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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