There you go again CJ, creating totally false impressions, and again demonstrating your weak grasp of this business.
No way the ASP is A$17kg, presumably you are drawing that off the A$17.50kg reported Sept Q, which was in fact a function of approx 600t LaCe missing the boat, and falling into the current Q.
In reality had that material shipped in the Sept Q the ASP would have been below the A$14.7kg reported in the June Q simply calculated on the Base 100 NdPr report showing Sept Q 101.6 vs June Q 109.
The QR clearly states: "NdPr market prices reached the lowest level of the year during the quarter. Despite this Lynas delivered an improved average selling price (ASP) due to a favourable product mix and record sales to strategic customers in Japan."
ASP was clearly a function of disproportionate NdPr sales, even at the lowest prices since Sept 15, and VERY clearly no guide to the current, or any future Q.
Buying back bondholders will be a balancing act between free cash/SP/20% SH limit on MtK-Fortress (not smaller, independent holders)/willingness of insto's & funds to wade into LYC. Reasonable chance Lynas will get some opportunity to repurchase some bonds but probably not the majority.
Really have to laugh at punters running around trying to justify/ridicule TA projections with PE, which may as well stand for Perfectly Emotional in this mangled context. Lol, your dear old Moly presents a magnificently perfect example where they paid
60 times historical earnings $1.2B/$20M for Neo Materials, but perhaps even more remarkably "Molycorp's stock was struggling in relation to its performance in the first half of 2011. While its
P/E is still very high at 145" based off the only year with positive cash flow from the legacy plant.
And BTW, from the same article, Mr & Mrs Mkt sucked it right up:
"Streetinsider.com reported that Molycorp's analyst meeting at 12:15 on Thursday may provide a rally for shares if the news is favorable.
It cites Morgan Stanley analyst Paretosh Misra, who gives the stock an ultimate price target of $90.
Although that's probably a bit optimistic, Molycorp could possibly be headed for an uptick. It may be worth it for investors to keep an eye on the rare earth markets, as we may be approaching a bottom." (October 20, 2011)
Good investing,
Justin Dove (aka Wood Duck, lol)
http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/24627/molycorp-rare-earth-stock-rally#.WEtT5LJ967A
(20min delay)