As I said I'll wait for the FS. I'd caution about chasing the price on euphoria.
Here are my models again for anyone who missed them and invests on facts not FOMO.
At 300kt of concentrate per annum production LOM=68 years
At 500kt of concentrate per annum production LOM=41 years
NPV of Binwood's best case LOM return of $12.8 billion, using a concentrate price of A$1,000/t , LOM 68 years and a discount rate of 5% = $5.4 million
On a 41 year LOM with $1000/t concentrate price and a discount rate of 5% the NPV = $21.9 million.
Both these numbers assume the income from the mine is evenly divided each year over the life of the mine and that the capital costs are already built into the processing costs as my model already assumes. Any upfront capital costs would reduce these numbers even further.
Remember if the concentrate price falls only 20% from the pit shell model price assumption that pit makes $0 real dollars over its life in real (non-discounted) dollar terms. I can't see any majors investing on this basis so KDR will be alone and reliant on whatever terms they can try and negotiate with the off-takers and on designing a smaller pit shell and FS that works.
The pit shell in its current form will never be dug based on the company's own numbers, unless someone can show me where my model is wrong. I'll be putting the money I made from KDR into the bank for the moment, until there is some good bottom picking to be done on beaten down profitable ASX gold stocks. See you when the feasibility study comes out. Esh
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