So spent a few hours looking a lithium supply/demand and thought I'd share some preliminary stuff. I have this in excel form so I can adjust things. Happy to take opinions and criticism.
Anyhow, the supply side is better known obviously than the demand side. Supply wise, I have two sources which is similar in their
prediction taking into account the various output coming online.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 Year Orocobre2 Global Lithium3 1 2012 2 2013 3 2014 4 2015 190000 180000 5 2016 200000 200000 6 2017 235000 230000 7 2018 275000 270000 8 2019 310000 300000 9 2020 335000 340000
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Column 1 Column 2 0 2 http://www.orocobre.com.au/PDF/ASX7Nov16_InvestorPresentation.pdf 1 3 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-lithium-supply-demand-forecast-joe-lowry
Essentially, 350,000 tons of Lithium carbide (LCE) per year by 2020.
The next question is how much LCE mass (kg) is required per kWh of battery. There are a number of estimates on this,
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 LCE(kg) / KWh Source 1 0.425 Dundee Capital Markets 2 0.840 Reuters 3 0.600 ANL 4 1.300 ANL 5 2.200 ANL (Li anode) 6 0.385 Theor. Limit 7 3.000 Meridian 8 2.000 Meridian (optimistic)
The ANL and in particular the Meridian study are most convincing. Meridian really think 3kg/kwh due to a variety of convincing issue which you can read in their conclusion.
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Column 1 0 http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Projects/How_Much_Lithium_Per_Battery.pdf
I'll take their recommended value of 3kg/kwh.
I then get some figures on EV sales (made up of BEH (battery electric vehicles) and PHEV (plugin hybrid electric vehicles)) from,
http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 0 Year BEV (mil) %PHEV PHEV (mil)1 All V Made (mil) EV Sale Share (%) LCE Demand 1 2012 0.08 0.40 0.05 63.00 0.21 11000 2 2013 0.12 0.40 0.08 65.00 0.31 16638 3 2014 0.20 0.40 0.13 67.50 0.50 27638 4 2015 0.33 0.40 0.22 68.50 0.79 44825 5 2016 0.45 0.40 0.30 70.70 1.05 61188 6 2017 0.60 0.39 0.38 72.60 1.35 81811 7 2018 0.85 0.38 0.52 74.50 1.84 114956 8 2019 1.00 0.37 0.59 76.40 2.08 134167 9 2020 1.35 0.36 0.76 78.30 2.69 179719 10 2021 1.55 0.35 0.83 80.20 2.97 204779 11 2022 1.85 0.34 0.95 82.10 3.41 242602 12 2023 2.20 0.33 1.08 84.00 3.91 286410 13 2024 2.55 0.32 1.20 85.90 4.37 329625 14 2025 3.00 0.31 1.35 87.80 4.95 385109
where, first column and third column are BEH and PHEV totals yearly sales in millions with projections beyond 2016 (quadratic gives the closest fit). Fourth column is total car sales per year with projection (linear fits best). Fifth column is the population EV fraction of total annual car sales which gets near 5% by 2025.
The final important column is the LCE in tons required to meet JUST THE EV BATTERY DEMAND. This assumes a BEH battery average capacity of 36.5 kWh and a PHEV average 14 kWh. These values come from the ev-volumes source above which is based on current EV battery averages. Using a current CONSTANT baseline of 120,000 tons of LCE for none EV use, this is the supply/demand comparison chart below.
* Note Goldman-Sachs projected that a 1% EV market increase equals 70,000 tons of LCE (I get similar figure..nice check)
* EV growth ALONE (5% by 2025) will use up soak up most supply.
* Non-EV growth in other industries will result in a short fall assuming 2015-2020 LCE supply growth trend (graph below assumes no growth).
* Fun example! Gigafactory1 is expect to have 50GWh/year of battery production by 2018. That's 150,000 tons of LCE.
At full production, it will have 150GWh/year or 450,000 tons of LCE. Gigafactory is just one of many big projects (the biggest) with most production capacity increasing in China.
* Matt Bohlsen at Seeking Alpha predicts demand of 600,000 tons by 2020.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4026752-lithium-miners-news-month-november-2016
Unless the supply side improves dramatically, I can't see anyway of avoiding an increasingly acute Li shortage.
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